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Original-Research: SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG - from GBC AG

21.07.2026 / 10:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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Classification of GBC AG to SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG

     Company Name:                SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG
     ISIN:                        DE000A2GS609

     Reason for the research:     Research Report (Anno)
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                17.80 EUR
     Target price on sight of:    31.12.2027
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker

From the Investment Phase to the Scaling Phase: Smartbroker+ with
Significant Margin Potential

Following a 2025 fiscal year marked by strong growth but investment-heavy
earnings, Smartbroker Holding AG is now in a crucial scaling phase.
Consolidated revenue rose significantly by 30.1% to EUR68.28 million in fiscal
year 2025 (previous year: EUR52.48 million), thereby exceeding the original
forecast by a noticeable margin. The main growth driver was the transaction
business centered on Smartbroker+, whose revenue increased to EUR40.14 million
(previous year: EUR27.23 million). The media business also performed well,
with revenue of EUR28.14 million (previous year: EUR25.25 million), and
continued to serve as the Group's stable earnings anchor. As a result, the
revenue structure is increasingly shifting in favor of the faster-growing
brokerage business, while the media segment continues to deliver reach,
brand awareness, and potential lead generation.

Operationally, Smartbroker benefited in fiscal year 2025 from a
significantly expanded customer base, high trading activity, and a positive
capital market environment. The number of clients increased to more than
259,000 (previous year: approximately 188,000), client assets rose to EUR14.7
billion (previous year: EUR10.0 billion), and the number of trades executed
reached 6.7 million (previous year: 3.8 million). This development shows
that, following the stabilization phase, Smartbroker+ is increasingly
serving as a key growth driver for the Group. At the same time, part of the
strong momentum in 2025 was likely driven by exceptionally high trading
activity in a volatile market environment, which is why we are initially
assuming a more cautious revenue trend for 2026.

Earnings performance for the 2025 fiscal year was characterized by a
deliberate increase in growth investments. EBITDA after customer acquisition
costs amounted to -EUR0.33 million (previous year: EUR8.97 million). The main
reason was the significant increase in customer acquisition costs to EUR9.81
million (previous year: EUR1.68 million). However, EBITDA before customer
acquisition costs remained clearly positive at EUR9.5 million (previous year:
EUR10.7 million), although the previous year benefited from a positive
one-time effect of EUR4.2 million. Adjusted for this effect, the operating
base before growth investments has thus improved. The Media segment
generated EBITDA of EUR6.7 million (previous year: EUR4.8 million) and achieved
an EBITDA margin of 23.8% (previous year: 19.0%). The transaction business
was still operating at a loss after customer acquisition costs but already
showed a positive operating basis before acquisition costs.

For fiscal year 2026, we expect a moderate increase in revenue to EUR70.00
million (2025: EUR68.28 million). Our estimate thus falls within the revenue
range of EUR66.00 million to EUR72.00 million communicated by management. We
view 2026 as a transitional year in which the larger customer base will
contribute to stabilizing revenue, but earnings growth will be limited by
persistently high customer acquisition costs, product investments, the
elimination of PFOF, and an increasingly competitive environment. For 2026,
we forecast EBITDA of EUR0.50 million and a net loss of EUR8.15 million.

Starting in 2027, the scaling of the business model should become more
clearly visible. For 2027, we expect revenue of EUR83.00 million and EBITDA of
EUR11.50 million. The main driver is likely to be the transaction business,
which should benefit from a larger and more mature customer base, rising
account balances, higher product usage, and additional revenue from trading
activities, savings plans, interest, and cash components. At the same time,
marketing intensity relative to revenue should gradually normalize. For
2027, we expect the company to return to profitability with a net income of
EUR4.00 million. For 2028, we forecast a further increase in revenue to EUR99.00
million, EBITDA of EUR22.00 million, and net income of EUR13.00 million. This
would mark Smartbroker Holding's gradual transition into a phase of
profitability in which Smartbroker+ represents the Group's primary driver of
value and earnings.

The balance sheet continues to provide a solid foundation for the growth
strategy. Despite the consolidated net loss for the year, the equity ratio
as of December 31, 2025, stood at a high 73.4% (December 31, 2024: 77.5%).
Cash and cash equivalents totaled EUR19.87 million (December 31, 2024: EUR22.01
million), while bank liabilities were significantly reduced to EUR2.93 million
(December 31, 2024: EUR6.19 million). As a result, the company has sufficient
financial flexibility to fund further product development and customer
acquisition.

Based on our DCF model, the fair value per share is EUR17.80 (previously:
EUR17.60). The valuation reflects the increasing scale of the brokerage
business, the stable earnings base of the media segment, and the expected
return to positive annual results starting in 2027. Additional potential
from the B2B trading API, new account and portfolio types, AI-powered
trading features, offerings for heavy traders, and the retirement savings
portfolio is only partially factored into our forecasts. Against this
backdrop, we assign a BUY rating to Smartbroker Holding AG shares with a
price target of EUR17.80.



You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=5a8abc2010c1861c7553bd5a694ad454

Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Completion: July 20, 2026 (6:00 p.m.)
First distribution: July 21, 2026 (10:00 a.m.)

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2368832 21.07.2026 CET/CEST

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