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Original-Research: MLP - from NuWays AG

Classification of NuWays AG to MLP

Company Name: MLP
ISIN: DE0006569908

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 04.04.2024
Target price: EUR 12.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change: 
Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Dry spell's over: Comeback of performance fees; chg. est.
 
For the first time since Q4 2021, MLP looks set to record performance fees
of EUR 7m in Q1, as capital markets have developed favourably, pushing FERI's
funds to new high water marks. In detail:
 
FERI's largest fund, the EquityFlex, surged 11.5% during Q1, outperforming
the benchmark by 1.5pp (S&P500: +10% in Q1). Performance based compensation
amounts to 15% of that outperformance and given EquityFlex' volume of EUR
1.36bn ($ 1.46bn), we should see EUR 2.9m of performance fees.
 
The second largest fund (OptoFlex) closed 6.1% above its old ATH, exceeding
the EUR STR of 3.9% (Optoflex' Benchmark) by 2.1pp. MLP also receives 15% of
that outperformance as performance fees, which should come in at EUR 4.1m,
based on Optoflex' fund size of EUR 1.3bn.
 
As we assume 25% of performance fees to be paid out as fund managers'
bonuses, we expect an EBIT contribution of EUR 5.3m in Q1. Next to Wealth
Management, MLP should also continue to benefit from (1) the ongoing strong
Banking business and (2) regulatory and market improvements in real estate:
 
(1) ECB interest rates have not been cut in Q1 and ECB signals to not trim
rates in the near future. Hence, interest income should remain high during
FY'24e (eNuW: EUR 69m) as elevated rates act with a full-year effect in '24.
Further upside to our estimate should emerge, as our initially assumed
average interest rate of 3.8% for FY'24 (Q1: 4.0%, Q2: 4.0%; Q3: 3.8% and
Q4: 3.5%) seems conservative, as Q4'23 yielded an interest rate of 4.6%
(annualized) and rates have been unchanged since then.
 
(2) Investing in newly built real estate has become incrementally more
attractive for investors thanks to the recently passed
'Wachstumschancengesetz', changing the depreciation regime from linear to
degressive. This should support MLP's RE development business (focus on
retirement homes) which can be brokered to MLP's above average wealthy
customers. This adds to slight upturn from low levels in the RE market,
thanks to a decline in 10y fixed rate mortgages from 4.2% in Nov'23 to now
3.6%.
 
In sum, MLP benefits from three drivers at once and should start well into
the year. Hence, we reiterate our BUY recommendation and raise our PT to EUR
12.00 (old: EUR 11.00), based on FCFY'24e.

You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29305.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Contact for questions

Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.

NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------


The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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