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Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG

21.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

     Company Name:                tonies SE
     ISIN:                        LU2333563281

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 18.50
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Christian Sandherr

Q3 preview: Figurines in the driver's seat

On November 12th, tonies will publish its Q3 trading statement (sales by
region and category). We expect group sales of EUR 174m, +20% yoy (cc: +19%).
The slowdown versus Q2 (+48% yoy) is largely a base effect: Q3 25 was the
launch quarter of the Toniebox 2, when retailers restocked with the new box
after holding back orders in H1 25. Underlying demand should remain healthy.
Keep in mind that Q3 is driven by retailer sell-in ahead of the holiday
season, so the figures say more about trade confidence in the Christmas
assortment than about end-consumer demand.

Figurines become the main growth driver. For Tonieboxes, we expect 6% yoy
growth to EUR 43m, as the category faces last year's high TB2 sales volumes
(Q3 25: +59% yoy). The Toniebox Lite should add first volumes but is
unlikely to fully offset the high comparable base. More important is its
role as a second entry point: at roughly half the TB2 price, it targets
households that have so far stayed out of the ecosystem. Tonies figurines,
in contrast, should grow 26% yoy to EUR 125m (eNuW), carried by the larger
installed base from the TB2 cycle and new Pokémon and Bluey content. Demand
for the latter looks strong: for instance, in the UK, tonies limits Bluey
orders to three figurines per purchase. Accessories & Digital should add EUR
6m (+11% yoy).

North America keeps the pace. We model NA sales of EUR 71m (+31% yoy; cc +29%,
as the stronger USD adds roughly EUR 1m), driven by figurine sales and the
Lite roll-out. DACH shows the TB2 base effect most clearly: after +45% yoy
in Q3 25, we expect EUR 65m (+6% yoy), with Bluey only reaching DACH shelves
at the end of October. RoW looks set to grow 29% yoy to EUR 38m on rising
household penetration in the UK, France and ANZ. With further market entries
planned for 2027, any comment on the timing and choice of new countries
would be welcome.

Sales guidance comfortably within reach. Including our Q3 estimate, 9M sales
would reach EUR 417m (+30% yoy). To meet the FY guidance of >EUR 760m (>20% cc),
tonies needs Q4 sales of only some EUR 343m, i.e. +11% yoy. The setup for the
holiday season looks supportive: after a successful launch at Walmart, the
Lite goes on sale at all retailers on October 23rd, and the Bluey collection
made Target's Top 50 holiday toys list. In North America, Q4 sales need to
grow only roughly 18% cc to deliver the >30% cc regional target. We model
FY26e sales of EUR 793m. The inventory built up in H1 for the H2 launches (FCF
H1: EUR -64m) should unwind in Q4, supporting the guided positive FCF for the
year.

Q4 remains the margin quarter. As every year, the bulk of profitability is
earned in Q4, when high-margin figurines dominate the mix. H1's 0.7% adj.
EBITDA margin (Toniebox-heavy mix, US tariff timing) is therefore no guide
to the full year, and the 9-11% guidance looks achievable. Regional data
underline the operating leverage: DACH, the most mature installed base,
reached a 24.4% EBITDA margin in H1 (+7.9pp yoy), a path NA should follow as
household penetration rises from today's low double digits.

BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 18.50 based on DCF.

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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2419208 21.10.2026 CET/CEST

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