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Original-Research: EBRO MOTORS GROUP EV SA - from NuWays AG

30.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to EBRO MOTORS GROUP EV SA

     Company Name:                EBRO MOTORS GROUP EV SA
     ISIN:                        ES0105725008

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 16.50
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Jorge Gonzalez

Strong H1 results; higher Chery volumes expected; PT up

EBRO published strong H1 results, with revenue nearly tripling yoy to EUR
309.7m on sell-in volumes of 12,612 vehicles, excluding Rent-A-Car
deliveries under buyback agreements. Market share reached 2.2% in 9M'26
versus 2.1% in H1'26, supported by its SUV offering and expanding commercial
network. EBRO now operates 105 POS and targets 110 by year-end, up from 85
at FY'25-end.

EBITDA improved to EUR 1.7m from EUR -18.8m in H1'25, although the 0.6% margin
still reflects low factory utilisation. Following the introduction of the M1
line in June, annual capacity can reach c.130k vehicles across three shifts,
versus expected FY'26 assembly of c.32k units. Additional Chery volumes
offer substantial scope for improved fixed-cost absorption.

Free cash flow was EUR -139m in H1'26, reflecting c.EUR 56m invested in
Rent-A-Car buyback vehicles, industrial capex and seasonal working capital
requirements. NWC increased to EUR 29m from EUR -21m at FY'25-end as inventory
was built ahead of summer demand and the August factory shutdown. We expect
this seasonal build-up to unwind towards year-end.

FY'26 guidance targets revenue of EUR 650-700m (+82-96% yoy) and sell-in
volumes of 26-29k units (+83-104% yoy). Pricing and PHEV positioning
investments should keep margins thin, consistent with our 0.3% adjusted
EBITDA margin forecast. EBRO also flagged a potential H2 CO provision for
the 2025-27 compliance period, which we estimate at c.EUR 7.5m.

EU hybrid import restrictions strengthen the strategic value of local
assembly. As discussed in our latest update, the agreed 350k annual quota
compares with expected China-built HEV/PHEV imports of c.800k in 2026.
According to press reports, implementation could begin as early as December,
with EU-assembled vehicles excluded from the import quota. Preparations to
introduce the electric JAECOO 5 and OMODA 5 in late 2026 and early 2027 give
EBRO an operational foundation for broader Chery allocations. Our ramp-up
remains prudent pending regulatory and quota clarity.

We raise our Chery assembly forecasts to at least 25k vehicles in 2027, from
6k previously, and to 50k annually from 2028, versus 40k previously. We see
an increasing need for Chery to shift production to Barcelona, with the
resulting earnings upside outweighing the slight adjustment to our FY'26
revenue forecast. Chery's strong commercial performance this year could
support volumes exceeding 80k annually in the near term, a scenario explored
on the following page. These revisions lift our PT to EUR 16.50 from EUR 14.50;
we reiterate BUY. With the hybrid import cap potentially taking effect as
early as December and preparations for the initial Chery models already
under way, we expect further news on an accelerated OMODA and JAECOO
assembly ramp-up in Barcelona over the coming weeks.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=d59237bbda788356fc0317320cdfb51c

For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2425070 30.10.2026 CET/CEST

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