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Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG

15.08.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

     Company Name:                MLP SE
     ISIN:                        DE0006569908

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     from:                        15.08.2025
     Target price:                EUR 13.00
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Henry Wendisch

Q2 in line with estimates, guidance confirmed and in reach

Topic: Yesterday, MLP released final Q2 results in line with the preliminary
EBIT figure, giving further insights into its moving parts. In detail:

Q2 sales arrived as expected flat yoy at EUR 228m (eNuW: EUR 230m), as a mix of
manifold revenue drivers: Wealth declined by 4% yoy to EUR 120m (eNuW: EUR 117m)
due to lower interest income and the much lower performance fees. On an
underlying level (sales ex performance fees), the Wealth competence field
could actually grow sales by 3.5% yoy. Life & Health grew modestly by 1% yoy
to EUR 66m (eNuW: EUR 69m) on the back of a strong health insurance business
(+8% yoy). Moreover, P&C showed a strong growth of 9% yoy to EUR 37m (eNuW: EUR
35m).

As already announced per ad-hoc on 31st July, Q2 EBIT came in at EUR 4.9m with
a 2.1% margin (-2.9 pp yoy) in a seasonally weak quarter. The main reason
behind this development is a mix of many moving parts:

  1.

    Lower interest rate environment: the recent ECB interest rate cuts led
    to a lower net interest income (NIC) of EUR 13.2m (Q2'24: EUR 14.2m), for
    which we assume an 85% incremental EBIT margin (i.e. a EUR -0.9m yoy EBIT
    effect).

  2.

    Lower performance fees: Q2'24 had a positive EUR 5.4m performance fee
    contribution, whereas Q2'25 only had EUR 1.6m, due to volatile capital
    markets. Assuming a 65% incremental EBIT margin of performance fees,
    this should have led to a negative EUR 2.5m yoy EBIT effect.

  3.

    Temporarily higher IT costs: in an anyhow seasonally weak quarter, the
    timing of temporarily higher IT costs (eNuW: EUR 1.5m) was unfavorable,
    further dragging EBIT.

Nevertheless, MLP confirmed its FY'25 EBIT guidance of EUR 100-110m. Although
H2'25 now requires an EBIT of EUR 57-67m (vs. H2'24 of EUR 46m EBIT incl. a EUR
16m EBIT contribution from performance fees), in order to reach the
guidance, management feels confident to achieve it. On the back of
continuous momentum in health insurance, non-life insurance as well as RE
brokerage (which comed with operating leverage and higher brokerage margins)
and with some EUR 4m in H2 performance fees baked in, we expect H2 EBIT of EUR
59m, in line with the guidance. Admittedly, the target now seems at risk if
the RE development segment Deutschland.Immobilien does not develop as
planned in H2. However, Q3'24 saw a strong performance fee contribution from
unobservable (and unpredictable) PE fund carries of EUR 17m. These might also
be in the cards for Q3'25 (at a lower or maybe similar magnitude) and would
thus support reaching the guidance, but that remains speculative for now.

All in all, the release should not have come as a surprise. Consequently, we
regard the negative share price reaction yesterday as overdone and on the
contrary recommend to BUY, as the shares remain attractively valued (only
6.6x FY'25e EBIT). As our estimates remain unchanged, we also maintain our
PT of EUR 13.00, based on SOTP and FCFY'25e.



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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2184370 15.08.2025 CET/CEST

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